football prediction

I still remember the 2016 NBA draft like it was yesterday—the excitement, the potential, the sheer number of franchise-altering talents that entered the league that night. As someone who's followed basketball religiously for over two decades, I've rarely seen a draft class with this much immediate impact potential. What fascinates me most isn't just where these players started, but how their careers have unfolded in the eight years since they entered the league. The journey from rookie to veteran is never linear, and the class of 2016 has given us some of the most compelling career arcs in recent memory.

When Ben Simmons went first overall to Philadelphia, I'll admit I was skeptical about his jump shot but completely bought into the hype surrounding his playmaking and defensive versatility. Looking back now, his career has been exactly what I feared—brilliant in flashes but consistently hampered by injuries and that persistent shooting weakness. His rookie season was delayed a full year due to injury, but when he finally debuted in 2017-18, he put up numbers we hadn't seen from a first-year player in ages: 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game. The comparison to Magic Johnson wasn't entirely crazy at the time, though I always thought it was premature. His defensive capabilities remain elite—he's made three All-Defensive teams—but the offensive limitations have prevented him from reaching that true superstar tier. The trade to Brooklyn felt inevitable, and while he's shown flashes of his old self, consistency remains his biggest challenge.

Brandon Ingram going second to the Lakers felt like destiny at the time—a smooth, lanky scorer following in the footsteps of previous Lakers greats. What surprised me most was how quickly the Lakers moved on from him in the Anthony Davis trade. In New Orleans, he's blossomed into exactly the player I thought he could be—an All-Star in 2020 who averaged 23.8 points that season. His game has this beautiful, effortless quality to it, though I've always wished he'd attack the rim more consistently rather than settling for mid-range jumpers. At 26, he's entering his prime years, and if he can stay healthy—which has been a challenge—I believe he's got another All-Star appearance or two in him.

Jaylen Brown at third to Boston was a pick I loved from day one. His athleticism was undeniable, but what impressed me most was his year-over-year improvement. He went from a raw athlete to a polished scorer and reliable defender, making three All-Star teams and winning the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals MVP. His contract extension—the richest in NBA history at $304 million over five years—raised eyebrows, but I've always believed he's worth every penny for what he brings on both ends of the floor. His development curve is exactly what teams hope for when they draft a player with high upside.

The real gem of this draft, in my opinion, was Domantas Sabonis at 11th to Orlando before being traded to Oklahoma City. I remember watching his rookie year and thinking he had good fundamentals but worried about his athletic limitations in today's NBA. Boy, was I wrong about that. His transformation into a triple-double threat has been remarkable—he led the league in rebounds last season with 12.3 per game while averaging 19.4 points and 7.3 assists. He's made four All-Star teams and represents exactly the kind of high-IQ basketball I love to watch.

Jamal Murray going seventh to Denver was another pick I initially questioned—I didn't see elite athleticism or overwhelming college stats that suggested stardom. But his playoff performances, particularly in the 2023 championship run where he averaged 26.1 points in the postseason, completely changed my perspective. His ability to elevate his game when it matters most reminds me of the great playoff performers of previous eras. The ACL injury in 2021 was devastating, but his comeback has been inspiring to watch.

What strikes me about this class is how many players developed into foundational pieces despite not being top picks. Pascal Siakam at 27th to Toronto has become a two-time All-Star and champion. Malcolm Brogdon at 36th won Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year. Fred VanVleet went undrafted entirely and became an All-Star and champion before signing an $85 million contract with Houston. These success stories speak to the importance of development systems and player work ethic—sometimes where you're drafted matters less than what you do after the draft.

The careers of these 2016 draftees remind me of something Manny Pacquiao said about Floyd Mayweather: "Let's fight again if he wants. I have no problem with that." There's a certain resilience and willingness to keep competing at the highest level that both athletes share. Just as Pacquiao remained open to future challenges despite his accomplishments, these NBA players continue to evolve and face new challenges years after their rookie seasons. That mindset—the constant pursuit of improvement and willingness to take on all comers—is what separates good players from great ones.

Looking back across eight seasons, the 2016 class has given us two players who have signed contracts worth over $300 million, nine All-Stars, multiple champions, and several players who have fundamentally changed their franchises. The distribution of talent across the draft was remarkable—from first pick Ben Simmons to undrafted Fred VanVleet, quality players emerged throughout. What I find most compelling is how their stories continue to evolve—players like Siakam and VanVleet have changed teams recently, while others like Brown and Sabonis have become franchise cornerstones. Their journeys remind us that a player's rookie season is just the opening chapter of what can become an epic career story.